Auto industry Impact - due to shut down

[MexicanYarisTK]

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/scz/ctd/d/ ... 04109.html

Here is one for under 30k, and it is no where near where that 38k 240i was. I have been to this it is a pretty legit operation.

I have found just as much m240's now than I have before and prices have gotten down. Just beginning of February one of the VW guys such a cheapass that he doesn't wanna exceed $30k, he finally found ONE CPO when he searched all the f30 340i, but it was in Cali

Here are some m240's I book marked (especially the $38k-32k I just mentioned) that are my contenders for now.
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/ which is this
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/

[max225]

4th one is a decent all other are for a 2'er

[MexicanYarisTK]

4th one is a decent all other are for a 2'er

it's great for only 13k miles. The first one especially was quite a lot for the miles. Couple are auto-zone quick shiny wipes

[fledonfoot]

Took a bunch of SUVs and trucks off the road (most of which were derelict and ready for the grave) - but also turned the creampuff survivors on the used car market into overpriced unobtainium.

It totally fucked the used car market.

Explain “totally fucked” when it affected less than 0.272% of the vehicles on the road today

You’re looking at the data wrong. You don’t have 100% of the people looking at 100% of the vehicles on the road... not every car on the road is available for sale. Not every person is shopping for a car.

You have a small group of people shopping for a small selection of available cars at a dealership. C4C took that market and obliterated it. It forced the supply of customers to buy before the money ran out, and then It took perfectly serviceable used cars and literally destroyed them instead of being available for resale.

What was left became overpriced.... the $3-6k cars became 5-9k. Everything else jumped up in value but down in quality and condition. There was a long period of time that you just couldn’t buy a decent used car in that $3-6 range, so customers were forced into longer/bigger loans on pricier cars.

[max225]

Explain “totally fucked” when it affected less than 0.272% of the vehicles on the road today

You’re looking at the data wrong. You don’t have 100% of the people looking at 100% of the vehicles on the road... not every car on the road is available for sale. Not every person is shopping for a car.

You have a small group of people shopping for a small selection of available cars at a dealership. C4C took that market and obliterated it. It forced the supply of customers to buy before the money ran out, and then It took perfectly serviceable used cars and literally destroyed them instead of being available for resale.

What was left became overpriced.... the $3-6k cars became 5-9k. Everything else jumped up in value but down in quality and condition. There was a long period of time that you just couldn’t buy a decent used car in that $3-6 range, so customers were forced into longer/bigger loans on pricier cars.

Seems like that is sort of the situation 10+ years later... very hard to find decent 3-6k cars. There are a lot of variables here, but I was just trying to illustrate the point that it only affected at tiny fraction of % of the vehicle market. And yes there were some good cars that were completely wasted but plenty of shit cars too.

I'd love to see the full list to see what vehicles it decimated, a 10 min online search makes it quite difficult but Fraud Explorer is top of the list. Also it took out vehicles not worth $4500 PP... which frankly isn't that big of deal still, otherwise people would have sold them

[max225]

Ford Explorer 4WD ( no one wants these)
Ford F150 Pickup 2WD ( )
Jeep Grand Cherokee 4WD ( )
Jeep Cherokee 4WD
Ford Explorer 2WD ( )
Dodge Caravan/Grand Caravan ( )
Chevrolet Blazer 4WD ( )
Ford F-150 Pickup 4WD ( )
Chevrolet C1500 Pickup 2WD ( )
Ford Windsta ( )

These are top trade ins out of the 690k vehicles. Each one of the top trade ins had more than a million registered vehicles on the road... and PER marque.

[Huckleberry]

Lose enough sales and the market will figure it out.

economies of scale becomes an issue then...

A 2020 Corolla that sells for $21k has more safety equipment as standard than a series of $10k option packages on a Panamera or Cayenne.

Why are we comparing a Corolla to a Panamera?

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Bailouts will come in next 6 months for auto industry

It shouldn't. The industry needs a real reset badly.

Rightsize the number of corps/brands to match actual demand.

Nuke the terrible culture from beginning to end.

Force the .gov to pass real/meaningful regulations.

This needs to happen, but won't sadly. Too many jobs at stake.

In terms of the impact of the virus, I think it's too soon to tell. It'll depend on how the economy comes back...if at all. This could either be a blip or complete decimation.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

economies of scale becomes an issue then...

A 2020 Corolla that sells for $21k has more safety equipment as standard than a series of $10k option packages on a Panamera or Cayenne.

Why are we comparing a Corolla to a Panamera?

You must be new here.

[Huckleberry]

Why are we comparing a Corolla to a Panamera?

You must be new here.

It just doesn't make sense to me when there are perfectly good 2020 911s to compare it to.

[goIftdibrad]

Bailouts will come in next 6 months for auto industry

It shouldn't. The industry needs a real reset badly.

oh i agree, 1000%. However the precedence is set by 08-09.

Back then Ford saw it coming and prepared, and weathered the storm. Meanwhile GM got bailed out.

This time Ford is full YOLO like GM was because they know the bailouts will come. What incentive is there to try and save the company in the free market if government will intervene and you can just steal the value you need from the shareholders and tax payers?

FCA might be on its own because Fiat. BUT... Fiat will definitely get a bailout from the Italians, its just what will happen to the chrysler part of things.

Its ok. When oil hits 15 bucks a barrel they can start cranking out 6 mpg suvs ZFG in 2021.



This is going to be painful for all of us. but a good hard smack of the reset button would be nice. I just got the reduced hours call. So the question is do I start paying the mortgage with the HELOC now or do I wait till i exhaust my cash, my house value is down to over the 20% I put down, and I'm truly left with shit in my hand? Decisions, decisions. I should have stayed in the power sector.

[goIftdibrad]

You must be new here.

It just doesn't make sense to me when there are perfectly good 2020 911s to compare it to.

the better question is what is better, a 2020 911 or leftover 2019 Zupra.

[razr390]

It just doesn't make sense to me when there are perfectly good 2020 911s to compare it to.

the better question is what is better, a 2020 911 or leftover 2019 Zupra.

Price aside? 911 all day. A stock 992 C4S is faster than a 991 Turbo

[goIftdibrad]

this is what we need

[ChrisoftheNorth]

It shouldn't. The industry needs a real reset badly.

or do I wait till i exhaust my cash,

I debate this myself...if the .gov will bail out my mortgage, should I blow my cash trying to pay it?

[ChrisoftheNorth]

this is what we need

Couldn't agree more.

[goIftdibrad]

or do I wait till i exhaust my cash,

I debate this myself...if the .gov will bail out my mortgage, should I blow my cash trying to pay it?

yea. even if government dont bail ME out they will prop up the bank, so they can steal my house. (side bar: i say steal b/c the bank should go bankrupt, and whoever buys the scraps should have to get my payment, and personally id 100% make them prove the debt...then duly pay them if they can...and enjoy my free fucking house if they cannot)

I'm more inclined to take my 5 figures, buy a camper cash, check out and tell them to come at me bro. We don't have debtors prison might as well take advantage of it.

[4zilch]

It shouldn't. The industry needs a real reset badly.

FCA might be on its own because Fiat. BUT... Fiat will definitely get a bailout from the Italians, its just what will happen to the chrysler part of things.

Downstream impact tho.

I don't work for FCA, but I work for one of their suppliers. FCA goes down and suddenly my company is looking very, very different and would likely impact the jobs withing the company that have nothing to do with the FCA engines (like mine).

I'm not for or against bail-outs. However, I would prefer to maintain my employment.

[goIftdibrad]

FCA might be on its own because Fiat. BUT... Fiat will definitely get a bailout from the Italians, its just what will happen to the chrysler part of things.

Downstream impact tho.

I don't work for FCA, but I work for one of their suppliers. FCA goes down and suddenly my company is looking very, very different and would likely impact the jobs withing the company that have nothing to do with the FCA engines (like mine).

I'm not for or against bail-outs. However, I would prefer to maintain my employment.

Yea that will be the struggle for every industry. We are losing work left and right...and there are more chess pieces than there are spaces on the board right now.

[goIftdibrad]

this is what we need

Don’t watch Mr. Robot. It’ll take you down a dark wanky hole.

looks good but 4 seasons, I'm no longer ready for that kind of commitment .

[max225]

I debate this myself...if the .gov will bail out my mortgage, should I blow my cash trying to pay it?

yea. even if government dont bail ME out they will prop up the bank, so they can steal my house. (side bar: i say steal b/c the bank should go bankrupt, and whoever buys the scraps should have to get my payment, and personally id 100% make them prove the debt...then duly pay them if they can...and enjoy my free fucking house if they cannot)

I'm more inclined to take my 5 figures, buy a camper cash, check out and tell them to come at me bro. We don't have debtors prison might as well take advantage of it.

It isn’t your house if you have a loan on it same applies for everything else. That’s a concept difficult to understand for most people

[goIftdibrad]

yea. even if government dont bail ME out they will prop up the bank, so they can steal my house. (side bar: i say steal b/c the bank should go bankrupt, and whoever buys the scraps should have to get my payment, and personally id 100% make them prove the debt...then duly pay them if they can...and enjoy my free fucking house if they cannot)

I'm more inclined to take my 5 figures, buy a camper cash, check out and tell them to come at me bro. We don't have debtors prison might as well take advantage of it.

It isn’t your house if you to pay property tax on it same applies for everything else. That’s a concept difficult to understand for most people

FIFY

But seriously i get what you are sayin. Bradsfeelsonhousing.txt If values erode below what ever equity we have then the incentive to keep paying dem payments gets real tough. We are at about 25% based on appraised value... will they dive 10%? 20%? 40% stay tuned to find out.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

I debate this myself...if the .gov will bail out my mortgage, should I blow my cash trying to pay it?

yea. even if government dont bail ME out they will prop up the bank, so they can steal my house. (side bar: i say steal b/c the bank should go bankrupt, and whoever buys the scraps should have to get my payment, and personally id 100% make them prove the debt...then duly pay them if they can...and enjoy my free fucking house if they cannot)

I'm more inclined to take my 5 figures, buy a camper cash, check out and tell them to come at me bro. We don't have debtors prison might as well take advantage of it.

We are 100% prepared to fuck off if it comes down to it. Camper is packed and loaded with everything to live in it for months or longer if we needed. I freshened it up both cosmetically and structurally, so it's ready.

But yea, will continue to pay the mortgage. I got crazy lucky with the timing of our refi, first mortgage payment isn't due until May 1. Maybe the bank will go under before I have to make it.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

FCA might be on its own because Fiat. BUT... Fiat will definitely get a bailout from the Italians, its just what will happen to the chrysler part of things.

Downstream impact tho.

I don't work for FCA, but I work for one of their suppliers. FCA goes down and suddenly my company is looking very, very different and would likely impact the jobs withing the company that have nothing to do with the FCA engines (like mine).

I'm not for or against bail-outs. However, I would prefer to maintain my employment.

Ultimately, that's the issue. The job loss from the industry imploding would be monumental. The problem is, that's propped up a very unhealthy industry that continues to make stupid short-sighted decisions while the .gov contradicts itself. Meanwhile, too many companies are propping up too many downstream companies driving margins even slimmer.

[coogles]

Dealers in the Northeast are effectively shut down for now. My General Manager is the only sales employee left in a dealership that sells 150-180 new cars a month and 80-100 used... with 20 salespeople, 4 managers and the GSM. Given the state mandated hoops involved for us to jump through to perform remote sales, it's largely not worth our time or effort until we can reopen as normal. If we do sell a car, it has to be worth our while - tough when the average Toyota carries about a 3-5% margin from MSRP to Invoice. Manufacturer has suspended floorplan financing repayments for now, and is just charging us interest on the mortgage for the building.

As it is, Toyota have effectively pulled all incentives for now. A lease on a standard Camry is $400/mo with $2500 down - the incentives all come from the manufacturer and that's what drives the deals. You're not going to see a dealer go $4k behind invoice on top of whatever the factory throws down because of the floorplan support... it costs us nothing to maintain the inventory for now for at least the next 90 days.

This is all super interesting, and largely counterintuitive to me. It's strange that manufacturers are offering these crazy finance deals, like 0% for 72 with 6 months deferred, but then that there isn't a large amount of cash incentive available if someone has their own financing or is a cash buyer. How does that work on the manufacturers' ends? There has to be a cost to offering those kinds of financing options, why not be willing to pass along that dollar amount to a buyer as a cash incentive?

The tidbit about floorplan support is key here, IMO. It makes it easy for a dealership to wait this thing out for a period of time in hopes that things return to normal without ing the entire inventory. How does that work for used inventory? I would've expected used prices to at least start softening, but dealerships really don't seem anxious to rush to the bottom judging by the listings I'm tracking. Although, unless someone comes in wanting to buy a car and doesn't have a trade, the number of cars in inventory doesn't equal n-1. The dealer just assumes the risk of carrying the cost of the trade instead of the car already in inventory.