Real Estate BITCH thread.

[max225]

I decided I am going to create this to learn from ya'll as far as what you're seeing in your own respective markets + understand regional variations and your take on this whole insane RE situation the united states is in....

Some of my gripes are as follows... 2nd/3rd tier cities have gotten insanely EXPENSIVE and doubled and or tripled in price since 2019... which is completely out of touch with the local economies that they reside under... I.E the average income is say 70k a year yet homes crest 1M in a lot of places... in particular FLORIDA.

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Sarasota/1547 ... e/47833745

$4M house in SARASOTA. Sold for 2.5M a YEAR AGO and sold for 1.3M in 2018...

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Naples/888-10 ... e/67542571

DUPLEX for 3.6M In naples with a 1K HOA fee sold for 1.3M in 2021....

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Naples/888-10 ... e/67542571

What is going on in florida? This doesn't pass the sniff test AT ALL.

3.2M for a place that sold for 2.2M last year... in west palm... INSANITY.
https://www.redfin.com/FL/West-Palm-Bea ... ty-history

[MexicanYarisTK]

who has grew up in Florida most of her life witnessed and heard all of it. It's insanity

[Desertbreh]

I decided I am going to create this to learn from ya'll as far as what you're seeing in your own respective markets + understand regional variations and your take on this whole insane RE situation the united states is in....

Some of my gripes are as follows... 2nd/3rd tier cities have gotten insanely EXPENSIVE and doubled and or tripled in price since 2019... which is completely out of touch with the local economies that they reside under... I.E the average income is say 70k a year yet homes crest 1M in a lot of places... in particular FLORIDA.

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Sarasota/1547 ... e/47833745

$4M house in SARASOTA. Sold for 2.5M a YEAR AGO and sold for 1.3M in 2018...

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Naples/888-10 ... e/67542571

DUPLEX for 3.6M In naples with a 1K HOA fee sold for 1.3M in 2021....

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Naples/888-10 ... e/67542571

What is going on in florida? This doesn't pass the sniff test AT ALL.

3.2M for a place that sold for 2.2M last year... in west palm... INSANITY.
https://www.redfin.com/FL/West-Palm-Bea ... ty-history

So don't move to Florida. Hurricanes, accompanying insane insurance rates, lack of topography, strange obsession with golf, alligators, boa constrictors, too fucking hot, too fucking humid, some new cradle of right wing nut jobs.

[CaleDeRoo]

I mean Florida is kind of awesome if you can be near the water, especially SoFlo or the Gulf Coast. You have a bunch people with jobs like yourself that are wfm and don't GAF about saving anything . They just want to be somewhere cool.

Now we have a real estate agent on here to dish out the about CLT than Dan and I might not know.

Edit: that place in Sarasota fucks

[max225]

Austin is coming back down to reality FAST

Place was appraised and paid taxes at 900k... now trying to sell for 689... sold for 360 in 2016... which is almost a decade ago... which seems reasonable.
https://www.redfin.com/TX/Lakeway/213-C ... e/31284479

[max225]

I decided I am going to create this to learn from ya'll as far as what you're seeing in your own respective markets + understand regional variations and your take on this whole insane RE situation the united states is in....

Some of my gripes are as follows... 2nd/3rd tier cities have gotten insanely EXPENSIVE and doubled and or tripled in price since 2019... which is completely out of touch with the local economies that they reside under... I.E the average income is say 70k a year yet homes crest 1M in a lot of places... in particular FLORIDA.

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Sarasota/1547 ... e/47833745

$4M house in SARASOTA. Sold for 2.5M a YEAR AGO and sold for 1.3M in 2018...

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Naples/888-10 ... e/67542571

DUPLEX for 3.6M In naples with a 1K HOA fee sold for 1.3M in 2021....

https://www.redfin.com/FL/Naples/888-10 ... e/67542571

What is going on in florida? This doesn't pass the sniff test AT ALL.

3.2M for a place that sold for 2.2M last year... in west palm... INSANITY.
https://www.redfin.com/FL/West-Palm-Bea ... ty-history

So don't move to Florida. Hurricanes, accompanying insane insurance rates, lack of topography, strange obsession with golf, alligators, boa constrictors, too fucking hot, too fucking humid, some new cradle of right wing nut jobs.

Which is why I think it should be at a discount over cali... not to mention. Florida has a shit ton of crime. That no one talks about because it's popular to talk about in cali... as well as bums... plenty in Florida as well. I am just pointing out the insanity of that RE market at the moment. I didn't realize 4M homes are run of the mill over there when minimum wage is $8 an hr and there is no real industry with high paying jobs in said state.

[golftdibrad1]

Ok... so? Things are worth what people will pay for them. There is no guarantee that house prices will rise to infinity in real dollars; in fact they cannot. Eventually the monetary system collapses or the bubble pops.

https://inflationdata.com/articles/infl ... ng-prices/



It wasnt until the gov ended brenton woods and the resulting monetary fuckery that we really started to see large changes in house prices in inflation adjusted dollars.

The prices will come down. Prices are high in 2nd/3rd tier cities as you say because people were trying to escape the 2020 fuckery of 1st teir blue cities and their bullshit. Simple supply and demand.

We are in a major baby bust so on long time scales (~10-15 years) housing WILL come down. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/Brth.pdf
We are at about 1.7 birth per woman and we need 2.1 at least just to maintain.

I think the coming commercial real estate crash will assist. All that premio downtown office space will be converted to mixed use residential. That will drive down rents, and subsequent demand for housing in general.

Anyway, as i've always said your house is not an investment. You need a place to live, and home, and its a piggy bank with negative interest. Its better than losing ALL your goddaym money. Its better than being beholden to landlords. Its stability for your family. You pay for these things.

[J-Ho-Fo-Show69]

Just gonna speculate on the whole Florida thing, but they don't have the following, which could make it advantageous for a millionaire or billionaire to "move" to:

- No state income tax
- No estate tax
- Also has a Homestead Protection which eliminates certain creditors from going after your property if you don't pay your shit.

I know Dave Portnoy bought a house in Florida and was talking on a podcast about having to live there over half the year since New York conducts statutory residency tests every year. Which is funny because I think of him as living in NYC.

Of course, that's only speculation as to why Florida is booming. I don't really know that market at all, so can't really speak on it. Doesn't make much sense to me really. I run to hot internally to live there. I remember going for Dan's wedding in December and just casually sweating in shorts and a tshirt.

As for Charlotte, yea, it's gotten expensive, but hasn't drastically outpaced the traditional average for real estate appreciation. Since the year 2000 to current moment, Charlotte has increase about 5% on average each year in appreciation. The average for the nation during the last 100 years is like 3.5-5%. There's a lot of factors when you discuss such a large scale (i.e. NYC vs. Kansas). Real estate is so localized that I think it's hard to compare the USA as a whole for any given time period.

I really can only speak to Charlotte as I'm intimately familiar with that market. If you bought a house in the year 2000, it's gone up about 5% on average each year. This includes several real estate cycles, but that's probably what it's going to do in the future. If you buy a place in Charlotte in 2024, by the time we get 10 years out, it's probably gone up about 5%. We'll probably go through several real estate cycles in those 10 years.

I always tell my clients "time in the market" is better than "trying to time the market".

[max225]

Just gonna speculate on the whole Florida thing, but they don't have the following, which could make it advantageous for a millionaire or billionaire to "move" to:

- No state income tax
- No estate tax
- Also has a Homestead Protection which eliminates certain creditors from going after your property if you don't pay your shit.

I know Dave Portnoy bought a house in Florida and was talking on a podcast about having to live there over half the year since New York conducts statutory residency tests every year. Which is funny because I think of him as living in NYC.

Of course, that's only speculation as to why Florida is booming. I don't really know that market at all, so can't really speak on it. Doesn't make much sense to me really. I run to hot internally to live there. I remember going for Dan's wedding in December and just casually sweating in shorts and a tshirt.

As for Charlotte, yea, it's gotten expensive, but hasn't drastically outpaced the traditional average for real estate appreciation. Since the year 2000 to current moment, Charlotte has increase about 5% on average each year in appreciation. The average for the nation during the last 100 years is like 3.5-5%. There's a lot of factors when you discuss such a large scale (i.e. NYC vs. Kansas). Real estate is so localized that I think it's hard to compare the USA as a whole for any given time period.

I really can only speak to Charlotte as I'm intimately familiar with that market. If you bought a house in the year 2000, it's gone up about 5% on average each year. This includes several real estate cycles, but that's probably what it's going to do in the future. If you buy a place in Charlotte in 2024, by the time we get 10 years out, it's probably gone up about 5%. We'll probably go through several real estate cycles in those 10 years.

I always tell my clients "time in the market" is better than "trying to time the market".

Marry the house and date the rate is also something you tell the clientele ?

The problem with the 10 year 5% calc is, if you come in at an all time high (as it seems now) you're going to likely break even in 10 years. Similar to what happened from 2006>2016

[max225]

https://www.redfin.com/NC/Charlotte/218 ... ty-history


Speaking of Charlotte... 2017>2023 100% price appreciation seems rather speculative also... considering it went up exactly 0 from 2006>2016

[J-Ho-Fo-Show69]

Just gonna speculate on the whole Florida thing, but they don't have the following, which could make it advantageous for a millionaire or billionaire to "move" to:

- No state income tax
- No estate tax
- Also has a Homestead Protection which eliminates certain creditors from going after your property if you don't pay your shit.

I know Dave Portnoy bought a house in Florida and was talking on a podcast about having to live there over half the year since New York conducts statutory residency tests every year. Which is funny because I think of him as living in NYC.

Of course, that's only speculation as to why Florida is booming. I don't really know that market at all, so can't really speak on it. Doesn't make much sense to me really. I run to hot internally to live there. I remember going for Dan's wedding in December and just casually sweating in shorts and a tshirt.

As for Charlotte, yea, it's gotten expensive, but hasn't drastically outpaced the traditional average for real estate appreciation. Since the year 2000 to current moment, Charlotte has increase about 5% on average each year in appreciation. The average for the nation during the last 100 years is like 3.5-5%. There's a lot of factors when you discuss such a large scale (i.e. NYC vs. Kansas). Real estate is so localized that I think it's hard to compare the USA as a whole for any given time period.

I really can only speak to Charlotte as I'm intimately familiar with that market. If you bought a house in the year 2000, it's gone up about 5% on average each year. This includes several real estate cycles, but that's probably what it's going to do in the future. If you buy a place in Charlotte in 2024, by the time we get 10 years out, it's probably gone up about 5%. We'll probably go through several real estate cycles in those 10 years.

I always tell my clients "time in the market" is better than "trying to time the market".

Marry the house and date the rate is also something you tell the clientele ?

The problem with the 10 year 5% calc is, if you come in at an all time high (as it seems now) you're going to likely break even in 10 years. Similar to what happened from 2006>2016

Telling the client to date the rate isn't really sound financial advice. Appreciate the sarcasm though. Sounds like you've been seeing a lot of TikToks and instagram reels from realtors saying such things.

10 years is really too small of a sample size. Coincidently in Charlotte, if you bought a house in 2006, your average purchase price was around $206k, by 2016 the average had rebounded to $265k. Which would have roughly been a little less than 3% on average each year. The average rent during that time went from $800/month to around $1100/month. Which means conservatively you would have spent $110k on rent during that 10 year period. About the same amount you would have spent on a mortgage for that $208,000 house minus the $60k in equity. Even factoring in replacing a roof, a/c, furnace, other maintenance during that time period, it's still a $30k positive outcome. Hold onto that same house through 2023, those numbers drastically favor owning over renting. Hince, time in the market is better than timing the market.

[J-Ho-Fo-Show69]

https://www.redfin.com/NC/Charlotte/218 ... ty-history


Speaking of Charlotte... 2017>2023 100% price appreciation seems rather speculative also... considering it went up exactly 0 from 2006>2016

using one anecdotal house is not the way to go about normalizing the housing market as a whole.

[max225]

Marry the house and date the rate is also something you tell the clientele ?

The problem with the 10 year 5% calc is, if you come in at an all time high (as it seems now) you're going to likely break even in 10 years. Similar to what happened from 2006>2016

Telling the client to date the rate isn't really sound financial advice. Appreciate the sarcasm though. Sounds like you've been seeing a lot of TikToks and instagram reels from realtors saying such things.

10 years is really too small of a sample size. Coincidently in Charlotte, if you bought a house in 2006, your average purchase price was around $206k, by 2016 the average had rebounded to $265k. Which would have roughly been a little less than 3% on average each year. The average rent during that time went from $800/month to around $1100/month. Which means conservatively you would have spent $110k on rent during that 10 year period. About the same amount you would have spent on a mortgage for that $208,000 house minus the $60k in equity. Even factoring in replacing a roof, a/c, furnace, other maintenance during that time period, it's still a $30k positive outcome. Hold onto that same house through 2023, those numbers drastically favor owning over renting. Hince, time in the market is better than timing the market.

I am not sure what the average time an american spends in a house... but 10 years seems like a reasonable amount. We're about to enter some unprecedented times, where the incomes have completely been detached from house values, which ended up being "Investments" for Corps and multiple property rich boomer land lords... Leaving the little guy unable to move or upgrade the house. Time will tell but I think 2024 will see a major house price correction and a return to a bit more normalcy.

In "theory" it should happen in the spots where there was the highest appreciation in values ... Phoenix, Florida, Texas, and NC.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCSTHPI this seems completely detached from local incomes and wage growth.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSNCA646N

[Tar]

Par for the course here in my neck of the woods, which is absolutely insane with recent interest rate offerings from the banks. But somehow we keep chugging along.

Rates are expected to drop, and that will send prices ^^^^^ in my opinion.

There's no sanity to the situation at hand, and 9 out 10 young people have zero confidence that they'll ever be able to afford a house.

[golftdibrad1]

Par for the course here in my neck of the woods, which is absolutely insane with recent interest rate offerings from the banks. But somehow we keep chugging along.

Rates are expected to drop, and that will send prices ^^^^^ in my opinion.

There's no sanity to the situation at hand, and 9 out 10 young people have zero confidence that they'll ever be able to afford a house.

yes, but your prices are in Canadian dollars so whats that like a thousand bucks?

[Tar]

Par for the course here in my neck of the woods, which is absolutely insane with recent interest rate offerings from the banks. But somehow we keep chugging along.

Rates are expected to drop, and that will send prices ^^^^^ in my opinion.

There's no sanity to the situation at hand, and 9 out 10 young people have zero confidence that they'll ever be able to afford a house.

yes, but your prices are in Canadian dollars so whats that like a thousand bucks?

CAD 1.4MM = 1.0MM USD, it's a toughhhh pill to swallow, I assure you, lol

[Desertbreh]

Fuck off

[Desertbreh]

Interesting. I have typed up my thoughts about where I WOULD move and the internal server error refuses, fucking REFUSES to allow me to submit it. But I type Fuck Off, I'm good to go.

[Desertbreh]

1. Fort Collins, CO
2. Durango, CO.
3. Tuscon, AZ
4. Knoxville/Asheville (Shout out to Brad)

Tuscon is too hot for most, but it is quite affordable and its just a nice town. Fort Collins is home to CSU, Tuscon has UA, Knoxville has UT, Durango has Fort Lewis College, a 4 year school.

[max225]

Interesting. I have typed up my thoughts about where I WOULD move and the internal server error refuses, fucking REFUSES to allow me to submit it. But I type Fuck Off, I'm good to go.

Yea I think there is a character of sorts that triggers something on this forum. Probably some "gift" our prior overlords left us to keep everyone on their toes.

Try to split the post into several sections... I just had to do that in another thread. Love to hear your thoughts on the matter also.

[Desertbreh]

Interesting. I have typed up my thoughts about where I WOULD move and the internal server error refuses, fucking REFUSES to allow me to submit it. But I type Fuck Off, I'm good to go.

Yea I think there is a character of sorts that triggers something on this forum. Probably some "gift" our prior overlords left us to keep everyone on their toes.

Try to split the post into several sections... I just had to do that in another thread. Love to hear your thoughts on the matter also.

I got rid of the first sentence. It has the verboten character.

[max225]

1. Fort Collins, CO
2. Durango, CO.
3. Tuscon, AZ
4. Knoxville/Asheville (Shout out to Brad)

Tuscon is too hot for most, but it is quite affordable and its just a nice town. Fort Collins is home to CSU, Tuscon has UA, Knoxville has UT, Durango has Fort Lewis College, a 4 year school.

Fort Collins seems a bit pricy

https://www.redfin.com/CO/Fort-Collins/ ... /180288914

~500k for a decent residence... I think I would prefer Reno, NV over that place. You still get the no state income tax. Proximity to a lot of the worlds most beautiful nature... and still within SOME driving distance of great malls/shopping/universities etc.

[max225]

Asheville seems like it costs a millie for a decent place too...

https://www.redfin.com/NC/Asheville/1-V ... /111277220

This is a double wide disguising as a house for 7 figures. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK sold for 1/2 the price a year ago

[Desertbreh]

1. Fort Collins, CO
2. Durango, CO.
3. Tuscon, AZ
4. Knoxville/Asheville (Shout out to Brad)

Tuscon is too hot for most, but it is quite affordable and its just a nice town. Fort Collins is home to CSU, Tuscon has UA, Knoxville has UT, Durango has Fort Lewis College, a 4 year school.

Fort Collins seems a bit pricy

https://www.redfin.com/CO/Fort-Collins/ ... /180288914

~500k for a decent residence... I think I would prefer Reno, NV over that place. You still get the no state income tax. Proximity to a lot of the worlds most beautiful nature... and still within SOME driving distance of great malls/shopping/universities etc.

I would Reno, agreed.

[Desertbreh]

Asheville seems like it costs a millie for a decent place too...

https://www.redfin.com/NC/Asheville/1-V ... /111277220

This is a double wide disguising as a house for 7 figures. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK sold for 1/2 the price a year ago

The Trust Funders have landed in Asheville proper. I just like the area.